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Done? Er, ‘medium’ chance for new cyclone
We’re two days from the midpoint of November, and still seeing orange blobs on the hurricane map (above).
That means a “medium” (20 percent to 50 percent) chance for forming a tropical cylone 300 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Forecasters don’t see any serious threat to Florida at this point, but it is a testament to the staying power of this hurricane season that there’s even a colored blob to talk about. The beleaguered Caribbean is still cleaning up from Paloma, the second-latest Category 4 storm ever to form in November.
From the National Hurricane Center 1 p.m. advisory: “A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE…SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.”
7 p.m. update: The center of the system is now 211 miles from San Juan and the forecast risk remains unchanged.
Comments
By Jon
November 14, 2008 9:22 AM | Link to this
“The Atlantic Ocean looks slightly more conducive to hurricane formation as sea surface temperatures have risen and, we believe, will continue to rise,” he said.
conducive mean better condition for hurricane.