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Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Tropical depression forms to Florida’s south
Tropical Depression 17 has formed in the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said at 4 p.m., and it is expected to get stronger.
Its forecast track takes it across Cuba by Sunday evening, by which time it is projected to have strengthened to at least a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane with winds up to 86 mph. Where by Monday? Wheeling northeast away from Florida, if the models are right.
If it becomes Tropical Storm Paloma, the storm would become the 16th named storm of the season. That would move 2008 into a tie for sixth place all-time for most named storms in a season, matching 2003 and 1936.
Tropical depressions feature winds up to 38 mph. Tropical storms have winds up to 73 mph. Hurricanes have sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. Human names are reserved for storms achieving Tropical Storm strength or greater.
Update: A 7 p.m. NHC advisory says TD 17 is “gradually intensifying” and could become a tropical storm later tonight or Thursday.
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Forecasters see “high” chance for cyclone
The National Hurricane Center has raised to “high” the chance a weather disturbance in the southern Caribbean will become a November cyclone in the next 48 hours. That means greater than 50 percent.
The system that would be named Paloma could become a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves to the north-northwest, the NHC said in a morning advisory. The center of the system is about 900 miles southwest of West Palm Beach.
For now, computer models are showing the storm curving away from Florida and bending northeast over the next several days.
1 p.m. update from NHC: ” SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.”
